July 13,2020

In its first projections comparing different actions to control COVID-19 transmission, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is forecasting 41,089 people (range of 16,355 to 109,761) in Indonesia will die by November 1. The forecast assumes the country will impose or sustain social distancing when deaths per day reach 8 per million people.

If mask use is increased to 95%, for example through people's compliance with enforced health protocols, the death toll could be reduced to 17,840 deaths (9,588 to 35,700). 

"These new forecasts underscore the burden of COVID-19 and the imperative for all Indonesians to actively do their part in helping prevent the spread of the virus," said Dr. Nafsiah Mboi, former minister of health of the Republic of Indonesia and current IHME board member. "Vigilance in wearing masks is critical in our collective efforts and is foundational to balancing public health and economic growth."

The forecasts to November 1 show the epidemic in Indonesia continuing to grow. The model is projecting that Indonesia's need for ICU beds for COVID-19 patients will exceed the beds available in the beginning of September if this trend proves accurate.

Under the large-scale social distancing mandates (PSBB), human mobility has been reduced to 21.3% below pre-COVID levels. The forecasts assume that under the "new normal" policy and gradual easing of the social distancing mandates, there will be a corresponding increase in mobility.

"Indonesia and every other nation in the grip of the pandemic are attempting the difficult and delicate balancing of preserving health and enabling economic recovery," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "IHME will continue to work closely with organizations globally in developing forecasts for different country-specific scenarios. We recognize that government-mandated measures to help prevent the transmission of the virus re not uniform across countries or even individual communities." 

The forecast is based on IHME's latest model and includes health system data, such as hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and ventilator needs, as well as infections, deaths, and antibody prevalence. Other factors include forecasts of testing per capita, mobility per capita, social distancing mandates, mask use, social contact rates, and seasonality. 

Recognizing the size of the country, IHME will be working with the Indonesian Ministry of Health and other organizations to explore analyses and projections of COVID-19 at the subnational level.

IHME wishes to acknowledge the Indonesia Ministry of Health and COVID-19 Response Acceleration Task Force for their assistance in providing data for its analysis.

About the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation 

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is an independent global health research organization at the University of Washington School of Medicine that provides rigorous and comparable measurement of the world's most important health problems and evaluates the strategies used to address them. IHME is committed to transparency and makes this information widely available so that policymakers have the evidence they need to make informed decisions on allocating resources to improve population health.